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Saturday, 4 October 2014

Syria - is unilateral action likely?

The conflict in Syria appears likely to escalate; we have now seen a United Nations Security Council resolution. I initially thought not as the five permanent members of the security council rarely agree on terms. The Russians have supported Syria for a long time, the Chinese didn't look like acting against Syria with protagonists saying this is just an issue concocted by western media to justify military action against Syria.


With the UN Security Council recently passing a unanimous resolution to address the growing threat posed by ISIL - the game has changed. This is not a manipulation by western media because we all know both China and Russia are two of the five permanent members of the Security Council with veto power, these two permanent members are not western nations.

There are ten rotating non-permanent members representing the regions of Africa, South America, Europe and Asia. Iraq has invited foreign nations to fight ISIL on their soil with Arab states joining the fight. The issue is not so much Iraq but Syria as the Assad regime will not allow military operations in Syria. Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution allowing the coalition of nations to take military action against ISIL forces in Syria? I wouldn't have thought so.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated “A long period of upheaval and, until recently, unresponsive leadership in Iraq – coupled with outrageous human rights abuses in Syria – have created a hothouse of horrors,” Responding to the unprecedented flow of foreign terrorist fighters with the growth of facilitation networks fueling conflicts around the world, the United Nations Security Council adopted the resolution to address the threat to international security and peace.

According to the United Nations News Centre press release, the resolution decided that Member States shall “prevent and suppress the recruiting, organising, transporting or equipping of individuals who travel to a State other than their State of residence or nationality for the purpose of the perpetration, planning or preparation of, or participation in, terrorist acts or the providing or receiving of terrorist training, and the financing of their travel and of their activities…”

As bombing of ISIL fighters continues in Iraq, one would expect the fighters to retreat to the relative safety of Syria to regroup and counter-attack. The ISIL forces are well organised using conventional military tactics, are well armed, financed and motivated. What will be the next move?

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