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Saturday, 25 April 2020

The coronavirus financial meltdown

Our retirement savings are taking a beating, I haven't lost my life and so far none of my family have and that is the primary issue. What has happened in Italy is just terrible, while I don't know anyone who lost their life, I cannot imagine how their families feel.


At some stage we are going to have to take a look at the financial ramifications of this mess, my and everyone else's superannuation fund is looking very sick. Sure, you don't make a loss until you sell so I am in no distress in that regard.

What gets smashed is earnings and dividends, I will seek to buy quality blue chip shares with the cash saved over a long period. I thought the market was overpriced and coming to the end of a long bull run.

I can't say I predicted this financial meltdown, I thought there would be a slowdown and a six to eighteen month bear market. There is a US presidential election this year, I expected the bull run to continue throughout the 2020 election year and into 2021 before the inevitable correction.

But this has all changed, I will follow this market down and look to buy. This time I will be all in and although I won't find the bottom, this could be the buying opportunity I have been seeking. We have mass unemployment, people will be glad to go out again so restaurants and bars could pick up.

The international economy will be depressed for some time, growth will be slow and I am sure some economies will seek to rebuild their manufacturing base. We have binged on cheap imports from China too long and neglected national supply chains.

The world was in a slow growth phase, wages were stagnant across the world fueled by debt and the growth of money. What we have seen from this virus pandemic is more sovereign debt so unless nations engage in infrastructure investment I just can’t see any changes in the short term.

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