The lost decade of capital growth

The Australian sharemarket is entering a bear market, they are now describing this period as the lost decade as the S&P200 index is in decline after peaking in early 2015. The residential property market around Australia has been pretty hot absorbing plenty of capital over that period; however, that market also is looking somewhat unstable.

The 2007 peak was under threat, yet based on the growth trend, the index needed to maintain current growth rates throughout 2016 to act as a base to exceed the 2007 high in 2017 - that isn't going to happen now. The real question is, where will the index bottom out? 

My guess is the S&P200 will be around the 4000 point mark when it hits it's bottom, the Australian financial year ends June 30 so we expect tax loss selling to drag the index down mid year - the second half of 2016 isn't looking that good either.