Why is global warming now referred to as climate change?

Why is global warming now called climate change?

Am I a climate change denier? Don't think so, I certainly believe in science, yet I am compelled to challenge the orthodox view. Not just believing exactly what I am told without firstly researching both views trying to pick holes in their arguments is the basis of critical thinking and deductive reasoning.

Scientists are receiving large sums in research grants to study such effects. Their funding may hinge on providing research fitting the widely held view, are they in fact compromised?

So it is with much interest I note the change in title from global warming to climate change. Research is indicating a 15 or so year lull in global warming, is this a momentary lull, a change in direction or a long term change?

I have noticed changes in the Perth climate as both a child and teenager, wind patterns, rainfall and temperatures have differed during that time, is this a 10, 30 or 100 year recurring cycle?

There is no doubt the industrial world of the last two hundred years is pumping emissions into the atmosphere, there is little doubt deforestation is affecting local environments.

However, how long has humanity been keeping accurate records? Is this all part of a longer cycle, we have had ice ages and rewarming in the past, there is no evidence of industrialisation during the mesozoic period. 

The widely held view is an ice age killed the dinosaur population ushering in the age of the mammal, a comet or meteorite crashed into the earth? Maybe, but where is the evidence? Is 200 years a long enough time-frame to make creditable judgment?

I am not saying global warming is over, a hiatus, yes, but why? A stabilisation period before increasing again? The data told us temperatures rose, that fact is not in dispute, however, policy is derived on the basis of computer modeling, this is a cause for concern.

Performance sailing at a reasonable price

The lightweight sharpie is a controlled class performance dingy sailed by a crew of three, a forward hand is connected to the trapeze with the sheet-hand with the skipper using toe straps to increase power through leveraging weight over the side.

The older style lightweight sharpies I began sailing on in the early 1980s were of plywood construction, with no lowers, a non-adjustable rig and a fixed mast preventer. As I progressed through a number of boats throughout the 80s and into the 90s, hull construction changed little but advances in rig set-ups and sail design kept the class contemporary. 

The hull has changed since the 1960s when the lightweight variant was released, a number of successful boats returned to plywood sandwich construction after the full fiberglass phase, a new hull is extremely expensive but picking up a secondhand yacht is a very cost effective method. The three-quarter balloon type spinnaker is hoisted from a chute in the deck; The main, jib and spinnaker are consistent in measurements, although sail shape is hotly contested. 

An aluminium mast with no backstay rounds out the rig; spreader length is set to class rules although the degree of spreader position (forward or aft) assists with mast stiffness, sidestay tension is adjusted to conditions with boom vang and cunningham controlling mast rake to de-power the rig in stronger conditions. Initial mast rake is set via foerstay tension, the base of the mast is stiffened with adjustable lowers and a mast preventer stops the foot of the mast breaking on downwind runs.

The fleet is very competitive, these days 40 odd boats line up at the National series, held in various locations throughout the country between the Christmas and New Year period. I remember fleets of 80 to 90 boats on the start line at national carnivals - very exciting. A stamp in circulation in 1981, the lightweight sharpie was a prominent class, a number of new classes is taking the mantle of leading performance dingy. The lightweight sharpie is an older controlled class, cost effective in many ways and extremely competitive to sail at the top level.

Is John Howard Australia's best Prime Minister?

John Howard was Australia's second longest serving Prime Minister of nearly 12 years after Sir Robert Menzies 16 years, serving slightly longer than Bob Hawke's 9 years. If longevity as Prime Minister is a measure, Howard sits behind only Menzies as the greatest PM to serve the country.

Menzies predecessor, John Curtin rated highly in my opinion, despite his short term in the top job, so longevity isn't the only measure. Menzies, Howard and Hawke is a pretty good line-up by any determination.

Howard was never a popular figure in the way that Hawke was; Howard was short, bald, a four eyes and deaf in one ear. Yet, despite his lack of charisma and Hawke like popularity, he led a government that made necessary decisions that aren't always popular. Howard never chased opinion polls like Hawke, instead deciding to ride out unpopular decisions, the polling generally looked after itself.

Unlike Hawke, Costello never challenged Howard for the top job as Keating challenged Hawke, failing once and ssucceedingon the second occasion. Just look at the Gillard/Rudd and Rudd/Gillard infighting of the lost six years - the years of instability. 

Neither Keating or Costello were friendly outside of professional duties with their respective Prime Minister; however, Costello never let his personal ambitions cloud his judgement. It could also be argued Costello never had the numbers to challenge Howard for the leadership.

Howard was a conviction leader, he didn't always make the popular decision but in my opinion, he got it right more often than not. The economic credibility of his government was their strongest virtue, paying off the 96 billion debt left by the previous government only for it to be increased to well over 300 billion under 6 years of Labor incompetence.

We, as a nation pretty much had nothing to show for this spending spurge. We survived the global financial crisis due to three main factors, trade with China rating highly, while the resources sector contracted, mining based income ensured capital inflows into the economy.

The low government debt coupled with strong reserves ensured investment capital when required, that was unfortunately pissed up against the wall in a manner not seen since Whitlam. Lastly, the strong financial position of Australian banks ensured the capital flows remained intact sparing enterprises from liquidity issues so they remained open for business.

The immediate move to grant the Reserve Bank of Australia independence from political influence greatly underscored monetary policy allowing the RBA to set interest rates as required and support the currency. The tough budgets to rein on spending (especially in the early years); repayment of government debt during the boom times allowed Australia to prosper even during the rebuilding years.

Going to an election with a goods and services tax as the centre piece of reform appeared to be political suicide, it was successful and the tax base has been expanded whilst personal income tax declined. That took political courage, Keating wanted to introduce a GST in the late 80s, Hawke scuttled the idea as politically unpopular killing the proposal.

Howard had his faults of course. He hung on to the prime minister's position too long, he should have retired after hosting the APEC conference in Sydney leaving Peter Costello a year in the top job. He should have not allowed Australian special forces to switch from Afghanistan to Iraq.

Removing the troops at a critical stage was a bad decision, instead we should have been increasing our commitment to wrestling the Taliban control of the nation to free Afghanistan forces. If he wanted to commit the air force and navy, that would not scramble the strategic mission leaving the SAS and commando regiment free to consolidate their gains in Afghanistan.

Howard should have acted earlier to stem the rise of Pauline Hanson and her flagrantly skewed views, she did much damage internationally to Australia's reputation creating an impression of intolerance. There will always be people holding such views, that is ok as we live in a democratic and free society. As long as such ideals do not become mainstream, people are allowed to hold personal views out of alignment with society.

After eleven and a half years, Australia was left in a stronger position financially, safer, bolder, proud and confident. The Howard government met the challenges of the day running a competent government. I believe Australian's became complacent feeling any fool could govern the country, when the fools did gain control, we saw six years of dysfunction and infighting ruin the gains of the previous period.

The third best bar in the world

As we were sitting in the shade, I was listening to the smooth French accent of a nearby tour guide describing the bar in the park as the third best in the world according to Lonely Planet.

Budapest's Erzsebet is definitely saved on Google maps, will be coming back here for sure. She told her listeners, you can come back later and find out for yourself - what great advice.

The benefit of open systems theory

I was asked during a course, what do you see as the benefit to the study of management of the open systems theory? A strategic view of management processes is imperative for modern managers; while a purely operational view serves frontline and middle management with a fast changing operating environment requires strategic management thinking.

Open systems theory maintains organisations, and more importantly the people who make up those organisations adapt a close working relationship with their external environment to ensure long term viability. A complex relationship exists between internal and external customers, suppliers and the staff members who interact with them. The modern operating environment requires organisations to quickly adapt to external factors due to global organisations, modern communication systems, international managers and flatter organisational structures.

The vocational education and training sector is under siege by the higher education sector, the schools sector, government funding models and international universities offering free online education. A modern vocational training organisation that fails to address the needs of their students will rapidly lose market share to organisations targeting such client relationships.

The iron curtin

Shall we live as slaves or free men? It isolated the east from the west, it split Europe and the world, it took away our freedom, it held us in captivity and fear, it tormented and humiliated us and we finally wore it down.

Burn rate

Burn rate is a measure for how fast a company will use up its shareholder capital; it is negative cash flow. If shareholder capital is exhausted, the enterprise will either have to find additional funding, close down or generate a profit from internal cash flows.

I purchased this hard cover book in the Latin Quarter in Paris for 1 euro and although a very old publication, it provides a fairly good history of the internet. I found it in the business section of a second hand bookshop with it providing a compelling read on buses, trains and planes throughout the next stage of the trip through the United States.

With an increasing number of investors and entrepreneurs blaming the dot-com bust not only on unsound management practices but also financial management to maintain the burn rate, it was accepted as the proxy measurement of how fast the start-up company was acquiring a customer base.

Does the book adequately describe the principles behind the current raft of technology companies heading to the market for funding? I am not sure but I will certainly treat with suspicion estimated revenues promoted by underwriters on the unsuspecting public.

Google Android One

The battleground for smartphone supremacy appears to be India, well it is the launch pad at any rate for low cost smartphones.

Following the launch of the low-cost Firefox OS smartphone into the Indian market, the Android One retails for a little over $100, a bargain at any price. Throughout the rest of 2014 and into 2015, the Android One will be progressively launched into South East Asian markets.

Powered by 4.4.4 KitKat, the smartphone will not be running obsolete software for budget consumers with free Android updates for the first two years, after that, I assume you will be charged for updates.

It will be interesting to see if budget smartphones will be released into premium markets like Australia or online sales will allow postage to outside countries.

Getting my MBA application together

I am considering my application for an MBA course, just putting together a top notch application should be considered an achievement in itself. Limited numbers of post graduate positions are available at the top business schools, so competition is fierce, the cost is significant so selecting the right provider is paramount.

You do get a couple of cracks at it though, because if first choice is not accepted, you move to second, third and fourth choice, I suppose. Once you have selected your preferred provider - you want to make your application count.

Then there is the GMAT at some but not all institutions, the graduate management admission test, having taken 2 1/4 hour written examinations, a 3 1/2 test incorporating analytical reasoning, integrated reasoning, quantitative reasoning and a verbal assessment is another step up again, not looking forward to that one.

I have read that only 6% of MBA applications for Stanford University are successful with 10% of Harvard applications making it through, now I know this is the top end and other business schools are closer to 50%, still, it is discouraging.

Then, once you have been accepted, hopefully at an institution high on your list, a couple of years of your life are gone, just slip past - you are under pressure to land that big job or promotion to make it all worthwhile.

Firefox OS smartphones

As Apple Inc prepared to roll out 4 million pre-sold iPhone 6 mobiles to cashed up consumers willing to pay a massive premium for their product; Mozilla Corp, the non-profit foundation behind Firefox is launching an open source operating system for smartphones targeting a totally different market segment.

I must admit, I am a fan of the Google Chrome web browser as my account is linked where I can access my personal account on any computer. I really like the Android open source system used on most non-Apple smartphones and tablets.

I use the Mozilla Firefox browser at work and reckon it is really a pretty good and intuitive operating system. Following on from Google's lead, rival tech company Firefox has also developed open source software to power mobile phones.

When I inspect the analytics of this particular site, I note with interest approximately 65% of internet traffic is Google Chrome, 20% is Firefox, 6% Internet Explorer, 4% is OS;FBSV 3% Safari and 2% Opera, Mobile Safari, CriOS and other systems.

Now this is open to change daily and only an indication although trends have emerged over the year this blog has been running. Based on this information, one might assume the rising popularity of Firefox is eclipsing Microsoft's Internet Explorer as browser of choice. 

I am also guessing the dominance of the Google Android operating system for smartphones accounts for the 65% majority. One expects this to last for the next decade or so, we really can't project any further forward than that.    

Searching the net, a 16GB iPhone is listed for sale at $869 (non-plan) and a whopping $1249 for a 128GB non-plan smartphone on the Apple Store website. The low-cost Firefox powered smartphone seems to be receiving mixed reviews currently, the phone is fairly simple to use by all accounts.   

Two Firefox powered smartphones have been released in India, the Intex Cloud FX and single-core processor Spice Fire One Mi-FX 1 are 2G and not 3G enabled phones. The INR 2299 ($43 AUD) Spice Fire One Mi-FX 1 is very competitively priced with further roll-outs in regions planned for the future.

What I am guessing is the take-up of cheaper smartphones in developing markets will lead to pressure on margins of the established players in developed markets as Firefox powered handsets improve.

ISIS or ISIL? Is there really a difference?

The term ISIS/ISIL is interesting, ISIS stands for Islamic State Iraq and Syria whilst ISIL stands for Islamic State Iraq Levant that really takes into account their wider regional ambitions of Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Jordan.

The UN is using the term ISIL and could be possibly seen as not wanting to be in direct conflict with Syria causing military action to escalate. The French are refusing to use either term as they believe the term state gives them some type of legitimacy.

This is not a mob I would like to be in conflict with over there, the concern for many nations is returning fighters trained as terrorists seeking to inflict their way of life on our shores.

Syria - is unilateral action likely?

The conflict in Syria appears likely to escalate; we have now seen a United Nations Security Council resolution. I initially thought not as the five permanent members of the security council rarely agree on terms. The Russians have supported Syria for a long time, the Chinese didn't look like acting against Syria with protagonists saying this is just an issue concocted by western media to justify military action against Syria.

With the UN Security Council recently passing a unanimous resolution to address the growing threat posed by ISIL - the game has changed. This is not a manipulation by western media because we all know both China and Russia are two of the five permanent members of the Security Council with veto power, these two permanent members are not western nations.

There are ten rotating non-permanent members representing the regions of Africa, South America, Europe and Asia. Iraq has invited foreign nations to fight ISIL on their soil with Arab states joining the fight. The issue is not so much Iraq but Syria as the Assad regime will not allow military operations in Syria. Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution allowing the coalition of nations to take military action against ISIL forces in Syria? I wouldn't have thought so.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated “A long period of upheaval and, until recently, unresponsive leadership in Iraq – coupled with outrageous human rights abuses in Syria – have created a hothouse of horrors,” Responding to the unprecedented flow of foreign terrorist fighters with the growth of facilitation networks fueling conflicts around the world, the United Nations Security Council adopted the resolution to address the threat to international security and peace.

According to the United Nations News Centre press release, the resolution decided that Member States shall “prevent and suppress the recruiting, organising, transporting or equipping of individuals who travel to a State other than their State of residence or nationality for the purpose of the perpetration, planning or preparation of, or participation in, terrorist acts or the providing or receiving of terrorist training, and the financing of their travel and of their activities…”

As bombing of ISIL fighters continues in Iraq, one would expect the fighters to retreat to the relative safety of Syria to regroup and counter-attack. The ISIL forces are well organised using conventional military tactics, are well armed, financed and motivated. What will be the next move?